Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.117021 2.244867 2.379634 2.532834 2.702840 2.886505 3.101001
2025-08-24 1.908918 2.081858 2.272949 2.501660 2.770545 3.079971 3.468025
2025-08-31 1.791762 1.991417 2.219253 2.502071 2.848958 3.267903 3.824218
2025-09-07 1.710669 1.930079 2.187032 2.515722 2.933620 3.460137 4.196714
2025-09-14 1.620325 1.848745 2.121516 2.478580 2.945543 3.554316 4.443894
2025-09-21 1.541823 1.775551 2.059231 2.437895 2.945301 3.627034 4.663481
2025-09-28 1.471785 1.708169 1.999050 2.393891 2.934326 3.680182 4.855976
2025-10-05 1.445093 1.692946 2.003050 2.432701 3.036519 3.898751 5.324063
2025-10-12 1.420854 1.678951 2.006885 2.470090 3.137747 4.123575 5.833627
2025-10-19 1.396077 1.662586 2.005993 2.499773 3.228619 4.339960 6.362296
2025-10-26 1.358580 1.627628 1.978075 2.489026 3.257532 4.460158 6.737627
2025-11-02 1.323097 1.593734 1.949741 2.475471 3.280181 4.570834 7.111850
2025-11-09 1.283150 1.553054 1.911222 2.446240 3.278293 4.643445 7.431909
2025-11-16 1.245720 1.514469 1.874021 2.416904 3.273999 4.711277 7.755628
2025-11-23 1.220592 1.491595 1.857619 2.417290 3.316841 4.865627 8.297586
2025-11-30 1.201095 1.475611 1.850048 2.430192 3.380509 5.063998 8.987269
2025-12-07 1.168063 1.439757 1.812610 2.395083 3.360702 5.102838 9.300087
2025-12-14 1.135859 1.404105 1.774204 2.356603 3.332447 5.122265 9.568610
2025-12-21 1.104397 1.368634 1.734903 2.314958 3.296037 5.122006 9.786123
2025-12-28 1.097261 1.367123 1.744968 2.351689 3.399216 5.413594 10.899243
2026-01-04 1.090042 1.365147 1.754079 2.387054 3.502321 5.718760 12.176550
2026-01-11 1.081125 1.360382 1.758712 2.415118 3.593953 6.012066 13.553584
2026-01-18 1.062564 1.341153 1.740851 2.404959 3.612909 6.144609 14.429719